过去十余年，“软件定义一切”的理念深刻影响着投资界的思潮。然而，时至2026年，这一观念正面临深度审视。回望历史，每次技术浪潮都遵循相似的轨迹：虚拟概念繁荣—泡沫破裂—价值回归实体领域。本世纪初的互联网泡沫、2008年的金融衍生品危机，以及当前人工智能热潮伴随的估值波动，都印证了这一规律。
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For the United States, a purely military solution is notionally possible: you could invade. But as noted, Iran is very, very big and has a large population, so a full-scale invasion would be an enormous undertaking, larger than any US military operation since the Second World War. Needless to say, the political will for this does not exist. But a ‘targeted’ ground operation against Iran’s ability to interdict the strait is also hard to concieve. Since Iran could launch underwater drones or one-way aerial attack drones from anywhere along the northern shore the United States would have to occupy many thousands of square miles to prevent this and of course then the ground troops doing that occupying would simply become the target for drones, mortars, artillery, IEDs and so on instead.